EIA Publishes Regional Electricity Supply and Pricing Forecasts Using UPLAN Model

LCG, August 13, 2019--The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that it is revising the presentation and modeling of its forecasts for electricity supply and market hub pricing to better reflect current electricity markets and system operations in the U.S. Beginning with the August 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the new forecasting approach models electricity markets using the UPLAN production cost optimization software developed by LCG Consulting. EIA uses the solution results provided by this proprietary model to develop the STEO forecasts of monthly electricity generation, fuel consumption, and wholesale prices.

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Dominion Energy Virginia Pursues 500 MW of Renewable Projects

LCG, August 8, 2019--Dominion Energy Virginia announced Monday that it is seeking bids for up to 500 MW of renewable capacity in both 2021 and 2022 to increase its clean energy resources. Dominion Energy stated that it is committed to having 3,000 MW of solar and wind in operation or under development in Virginia by 2022. This near-term step is part of an ultimate company commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 across the 18 states it serves.

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Press Release

Congestion on the Horizon for the SPP Integrated Marketplace

LCG, December 19, 2013 – LCG Consulting (LCG) of Los Altos, California has performed an electricity market assessment and forecast of SPP. Congestion is imminent.

SPP Integrated Market: Co-optimized Products
  • Day Ahead Energy
  • Real Time Energy
  • Virtual Energy
  • Day Ahead Regulation Up
  • Day Ahead Regulation Down
  • Day Ahead Spinning Reserve
  • Day Ahead Supplemental Reserve
  • Real Time Regulation Up
  • Real Time Regulation Down
  • Real Time Spinning Reserve
  • Real Time Supplemental Reserve

SPP Integrated Marketplace

March 2014 marks the start of the completely redefined market structure in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), termed the “Integrated Marketplace”. This is a significant transition and includes an entirely new approach to coordinating power production, consumption, reliability and settlement. Where previously 16 Balancing Authorities committed their own generation and market prices were relevant only for the amount of power utilized for balancing, the Integrated Marketplace will include a centralized commitment and market prices for the forward (Day Ahead) and Real Time markets. In addition, a number of co-optimized products will be offered.

Market Participants will be able to utilize co-optimized markets along with new market instruments to operate more strategically in the Marketplace such as:
  • Bilateral Settlement Schedules
  • Transmission Congestion Rights
  • Virtual Transactions

To understand the new SPP Market and how it operates, it is helpful to investigate the fundamental elements which drive it. By looking at the fundamentals along with the protocols that will govern market operations, we can gain tremendous insight into what to expect.

SPP 2014 Generation Mix

Using UPLAN, an integrated fundamental model which has been designed to simultaneously replicate the physical and financial operations of the power system, LCG has run comprehensive, chronological simulations of SPP to determine how the system will operate. Some observations from these simulations follow.

Locational Marginal Price Forecast

  • High prices will be found around the Kansas-Oklahoma border and Texas-Panhandle.
  • Low prices are forecast for the southwestern border (SUNC, NPPD).

SPP Peak Prices 2014

SPP is aggressively adding transmission, including a number of recently completed 345kV projects. The 2013 SPP Transmission Expansion Plan (STEP) includes $6.7Billion in projects and will be included as appropriate with realistic in-service dates within LCG’s simulations. 
Even so, price spreads will be seen throughout the footprint.

For more information on the SPP Integrated Marketplace, the forecasting tools used to predict the congestion and prices that can be expected or any other queries, please contact:

Julie Chien
1(650)962-9670 ext. 110

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