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EIA Publishes Regional Electricity Supply and Pricing Forecasts Using UPLAN Model

LCG, August 13, 2019--The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that it is revising the presentation and modeling of its forecasts for electricity supply and market hub pricing to better reflect current electricity markets and system operations in the U.S. Beginning with the August 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the new forecasting approach models electricity markets using the UPLAN production cost optimization software developed by LCG Consulting. EIA uses the solution results provided by this proprietary model to develop the STEO forecasts of monthly electricity generation, fuel consumption, and wholesale prices.

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Dominion Energy Virginia Pursues 500 MW of Renewable Projects

LCG, August 8, 2019--Dominion Energy Virginia announced Monday that it is seeking bids for up to 500 MW of renewable capacity in both 2021 and 2022 to increase its clean energy resources. Dominion Energy stated that it is committed to having 3,000 MW of solar and wind in operation or under development in Virginia by 2022. This near-term step is part of an ultimate company commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 across the 18 states it serves.

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Industry News

Texas Market Experiences Potentially Costly Scheduling

LCG, Mar. 1, 2002--A top official at the Texas Public Utility Commission said that an initial investigation has identified six "qualified scheduling entities" that appear to have made at least $1 million in profits each based on a feature of the Texas market.

Parviz Adib, who is in charge of the commission's market oversight unit, said "our conclusion is that intentional overscheduling took place, and that harm was done to the market." The PUC continues to collect data, and will issue its final conclusions later this year.

Qualified scheduling entities act as middlemen between power producers and the Texas transmission grid. They submit forecasts of generation that is expected from their utility or marketer clients, and the amount of demand that is likely from end-users served by them. In Texas, the scheduling entities can be paid if the amount of energy consumed is below their forecast expectations, or charged if power produced falls short of their forecasts. Overall, the forecast errors are expected to cancel one another out.

During times that power needs are high, the value of having additional grid capacity available is relatively higher, and therefore, any unpexected surplus of capacity due to overscheduling can generate additional revenue for a QSE. Based on schedules of 45 QSE's during a two-week period in August 2001, some of the companies' forecasts were consistently in error by various ranges, and in some cases, by well over 100 percent.

Janee Briesmeister, a senior analyst at the Austin office of Consumers Union said that if a penalty resulted, she thought it should be more than a "slap on the wrist." Adib, whose office will seek guidance from commissioners on any penalties that may result, told the Dallas Fort-Worth Star-Telegram, "you cannot overschedule for so many days - one day after another - without really realizing what you are doing."
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